By Madibeng Kgwete: posted on 23 July 2008
As Zimbabwean political parties begin talks – hopefully towards a negotiated settlement – it is opportune that we evaluate the likely outcomes of this very crucial process.
President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF and the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have put it in writing that they are committed to finding a genuine and lasting solution to the crisis in their country.
Despite the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding that saw the Zimbabwean parties agreeing on a framework for talks, I remain sceptical that the MDC will walk the talk and show real commitment to finding a solution.
The biggest obstacle to the talks is external meddling from so-called Western powers, led by Britain and the United States. Both countries have stated upfront that they will not recognise any leader except Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the bigger faction of the MDC.
When coupled with the MDC-Tsvangirai’s submissiveness, British and American interference in the Zimbabwean political negotiations is likely to derail any progress, thus threatening to lead to the collapse of the talks.
After having failed to push for sanctions against Zimbabwe through the United Nations (UN) Security Council, the US and the European Union are considering imposing further “targeted” sanctions against Mugabe and his allies.
Although punitive in nature, the sanctions will not deliver a lasting solution to the political and economic problems besieging Zimbabwe. In the contrary, the sanctions will work in favour of Mugabe’s anti-imperialist rhetoric.
The arrogance of the US and its allies is best described by comments attributed to the White House spokesman, Sean McCormack, who is said to have described China and Russia (both opposed to sanctions against Zimbabwe) as being “on the wrong side of history.”
The African Union (AU) must send a clear message to the US and the EU: that their interference in the political process in Zimbabwe will achieve nothing more than hardening Mugabe’s attitude towards the talks, thus making him unwilling to make significant compromises.
The AU must also make it clear to the Western powers that it is not for them (the Western powers) to choose who must lead a transitional government in Zimbabwe. It is up to the parties involved in the negotiations to decide on an appropriate model of a transitional government and delegate an appropriate leadership collective.
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